梦幻显示背后 现在买4K电视机划算吗

There are few things consumers love more than their television sets. Typically, when the industry introduces a new standard or technology, be it color sets, flat screens or high def, the stampede to the mall is quick and impressive.完全没什么东西比电视机更加不受消费者青睐了。一般来讲，当这个行业引入新的标准或技术时，不管是彩色、纯平还是高清，大家都会飞快涌进卖场，人潮叹为观止。This time there may not be a stampede.这一次，有可能就没人潮涌动了。

Ultra HD television, sometimes referred to as 4K, is widely seen as a leap forward in picture quality. More pixels and big screens -- some of which are curved, for an immersive viewing experience -- do raise the bar in TV watching, critics say.有时候又被称作4K电视机的超高清(Ultra HD)电视机，被广泛视作画质的一场大跃进。批评者说道，更好的像素和更大的屏幕――有些屏幕是倾斜的，构成一种沉浸式的观赏体验――显然提升了看电视的标准。Whats more, as production ramps up, prices are coming down to where some of the lower-end 4K sets are competitive with large-screen HD sets.另外，随着生产规模不断扩大，价格正在上升，某些低端4K电视机早已可与大屏幕高清(HD)电视机竞争。

But have they fallen far enough for consumers en masse to buy? Or should shoppers wait until prices fall further?但否早已上升到让普通消费者社会各界出售的水平？或者，消费者是不是应当等到价格更进一步上升的时候？Critics say some technical issues remain, such as concerns about whether there is sufficient bandwidth in most homes to support uninterrupted viewing. There is also relatively little to watch, so far, in 4K.批评者说道，有些技术问题依然不存在，比如多数住宅的比特率否不足以反对简洁观赏这样的疑虑。目前4K格式的内容也比较较少。But supporters argue that a 4K television set, given its ability to improve current HD picture quality, among other reasons, is a better purchase even at todays prices than a large-screen HDTV, which threatens to lock viewers into an increasingly inferior standard for years to come.但支持者指出，考虑到需要提高当前高清画面的质量和其他一些因素，即便是以今天的价格，出售4K电视机也比出售大屏幕高清电视机昂贵，出售后者很有可能让看电视的人在未来好几年都局限于一种日贞粗劣的标准。

Its better to wait, says Brett Sappington, director of research at Dallas-based Parks Associates. Jack Wetherill, senior market analyst at British-based Futuresource Consulting, says 4K is a good buy already.达拉斯Parks Associates研究总监布雷特萨平顿(Brett Sappington)说道，最差是再行等等。英国Futuresource Consulting公司的高级市场分析师杰克韦瑟里尔(Jack Wetherill)则说道，4K电视机早已有一点买了。Yes: If You Buy It Now, You Are Set For Many Years to Come卖：如果现在卖，今后好多年都不必换回了When consumers shop for a large-screen TV, two requirements tend to be at the top of the checklist: a wow factor, and an affordable price.消费者选配大屏幕电视机的时候，有两个拒绝是他们最重视的，一是精彩的元素，二是低廉的价格。

Ultra-high-definition, or 4K, television sets meet the first requirement with flying colors. Ultra HD offers picture quality way beyond what is widely available in homes today: four times the picture resolution of todays HD. That means four times the number of pixels, the tiny points that make up the image. The greater array of colors and the sharper contrast, especially in the large-screen format, give viewers a feeling of being immersed in what theyre watching.超高清(Ultra HD)电视机或曰4K电视机轻而易举地符合了第一个拒绝。它的画质相比之下多达今天家庭普通电视机的水平：其分辨率是今天高清电视机的四倍，也就是说，像素（构成画面的小点）为后者的四倍。更加非常丰富的色彩和更加反感的对比度，尤其是通过大屏幕的形式展现出出来，给观看者一种沉浸于所观赏内容的感觉。Theres your wow factor.这就是你所要的精彩元素。

Long-Term Purchase将来投资As for an affordable price, while 4K is still a relatively new technology, and price tags admittedly were astronomical to begin with, prices now have fallen to where they are competitive with high-end alternatives in the large-screen HD market. Today, 4K sets from leading brands with 55-inch screens are available for $2,300. It would be less expensive to buy a screen of the same size in 1080p. But large-screen TVs are a long-term purchase and represent great value for money. As the average U.S. household will keep its new TV for around seven years and use it for five hours a day, this equates to just 18 cents per hour used.至于价格否可忍受的问题，虽然4K电视机依然是一种比较新颍的技术，一开始也是众所周知的天价，但现在的价格早已上升到哈密顿高端大屏幕高清电视机的水平。今天花2,300美元就可以卖到一台一线品牌的55英寸4K电视机。某种程度尺寸的1080p电视机更为低廉，但大屏幕电视机是一笔长期投资，物有所值。鉴于美国普通家庭不会将分批电视机保有七年左右的时间且每天用于五个小时，这相等每用一个小时仅有花上18美分。

Larger screens and better picture quality are the wave of the future. Consumers are buying increasingly large TV sets (27% of last years sales were 50-inch screens and larger, and 10% were 60-inch and above). As a result, 1080p picture quality is reaching its limits on larger screens. Shoppers who buy a bigger screen with 1080p now will be acquiring a TV that will be quickly outdated in terms of quality in the near future.更大的屏幕和更佳的画质是未来的潮流。消费者出售的电视机于是以显得更加大（去年销量当中27%是50英寸及以上，10%是60英寸及以上）。

因此大屏幕上1080p的画质正在迫近无限大。以画质而论，现在出售1080p的大屏幕电视机，不远处的将来就不会迅速过时。

TV manufacturers are solidly behind UHD. Unlike 3-D television, 4K does not require the inconvenience of special glasses. Those who choose their 4K set carefully will be buying a television that is future-proofed for years to come. The key technology building blocks, HDMI 2.0, an interface for transferring video and audio data which supports 4K resolution, and HEVC, a video compression format, both of which will be necessary to enjoy the full benefits of HD as it continues to improve, are already available on many 4K sets.电视机生产商忠诚反对超高清。和3D电视机不一样的是，4K电视机不必须困难地戴上类似的眼镜。细心挑选出4K电视机的人，将是在出售一台几年之内都会过时的电视机。

高清电视在之后改良，而要享用其全部益处，两种关键技术成分必不可少，而很多4K电视机早已不具备了这两种技术：一个是HDMI 2.0模块，用作切换反对4K分辨率的音视频数据；还有一个是视频压缩格式HEVC。Content Is Coming内容不会更加非常丰富Content in 4K still is limited, but in time, more will become available. Consumers who are concerned about a lack of native 4K content now can take comfort in the knowledge that TV manufacturers have put a lot of work into upscaling technology to ensure that todays HD content looks even better on 4K sets right now. And a new generation of Blu-ray players and discs that will be able to play back native 4K content in all its glory is in the pipeline, perhaps 18 months away.4K内容依然受限，但假以时日，更加多的内容都将可以取得。

目前担忧缺乏原生4K内容的消费者可以安心，因为电视机生产商花上了相当大力气提高技术，来保证今天的高清内容在现在的4K电视机上效果都要更佳。需要播出正宗原生4K内容的新一代蓝光播放机和光碟将要来临，有可能还有一年半的时间。Much of the first 4K content will become available via the Internet. A broadband speed of 15 megabits per second is enough to ensure a good experience of 4K, and many households already have this. Viewers who want to be among the first to watch must-see shows such as House of Cards in 4K will find 4K sets an attractive proposition. Those who choose to rely on Wi-Fi rather than their wired device for 4K streaming will note that many products are now emerging that feature enhanced Wi-Fi to handle 4K streaming.第一批4K内容当中的相当大一部分将是通过互联网公布。

每秒15兆的比特率不足以保证较好的4K体验，很多家庭早已不具备。期望第一批观赏4K格式《纸牌屋》(House of Cards)等无以看剧的观众将不会找到4K电视机是一个不俗的方案。

自由选择依赖WiFi而不是有线设备在线播放4K内容的人们将不会注意到，现在很多新产品都具有强化WiFi功能来处置4K内容的在线播放。Big sporting events often trigger households into upgrading their sets. With the World Cup starting in Brazil next month, the coming weeks will see many consumers upgrading their sets to enjoy the event in the highest quality possible.根本性体育赛事经常引诱家庭升级电视机。世界杯将于6月份在巴西开赛，接下来几个星期将不会有很多消费者升级电视机，用最差的画质来喜爱赛事。

Those who are in the market now for a new large-screen set should seriously consider 4K models. As with most new electronics products, prices will fall further. But the 4K sets are already good value for money. If you buy a 1080p set now, which you will likely keep until the next decade, the picture will look increasingly low-res as time passes.目前正在市场上找寻新款大屏幕电视机的消费者应该严肃考虑到4K型号。和大多数新款电子产品一样，价格将不会更进一步暴跌。

但4K电视机早已物有所值。如果现在卖一台1080p的电视机，有可能你不会仍然中用2020年，随着时间的流逝，其分辨率将不会变得越来越低。If you can afford 4K now -- why wait?如果现在就负担得起4K，干吗要等呢？Mr. Wetherill is senior market analyst at Futuresource Consulting Ltd., Dunstable, England.Jack Wetherill 是英国邓斯特布尔咨询公司Futuresource Consulting Ltd.的高级市场分析师。

No: Little Content And High Prices Make It a Bad Deal不卖：内容较少，价格低，不划算Strolling down to your nearby electronics store, you see a promotion for something called 4K TV. The clarity and detail of the picture is striking, even with your nose pressed right up against the glass of the TV screen.拦超过附近的电子产品店，看见广告上促销一种名为“4K电视机”的东西。清晰度和画面细节让人震惊，哪怕你把鼻子伸展到电视机屏幕的玻璃上去。

Then, looking at the price tag, you are struck by clarity of a different sort.然后看价签，你就不会因为另外一种清晰度而深感震惊。Many consumers are encountering the 4K phenomena. But to enjoy the true benefits of 4K, three things need to be present: the television, the content, and a way to get the content to the TV. Its a bit like the proverbial three-legged stool. If one of the legs is a bit short of the others, the experience is, at best, uneven. Missing a leg? Then the system doesnt work at all.很多消费者都遇上了这种4K现象。但要享用4K带给的确实益处，三个条件必需不具备：电视机，内容，把内容引领至电视机上的途径。犹如俗谚所说的三脚凳，如果一条腿比另两条较短，那么整个体验最少也只算是不平衡。

要是较少了一条腿，整个系统显然就无法工作。TV makers rolled out 4K sets in early 2012, demonstrating 84-inch behemoths with stunning picture quality priced in the $20,000 range. By the end of 2013, prices had fallen dramatically, with 55-inch 4K TVs priced as low as $3,500. And by last month, prices had fallen further to $2,500.电视机生产商在2012年年初发售4K电视机，展览了84英寸的庞然大物，画质精彩，价格在2万美元左右。到2013年底，价格早已大幅度上升，55英寸4K电视机低于的只有3,500美元。

到今年4月份，堪称更进一步下探到2,500美元。But do you really want the least expensive television in 4K, one with limited features and a brand you may have never heard of?但你知道想要卖价格最低廉、功能受限、牌子根本没听闻过的4K电视机吗？One Buying Strategy出售策略The difference in price between 4K and HDTV is greatest among the larger screen sizes. Consumers can purchase a 70 screen from well-known HDTV makers for around $1,700, compared with more than $4,000 for a similarly sized 4K TV. Effectively, a consumer could buy the 70 HDTV today, buy a 4K set when prices are lower, and still come out ahead.大屏幕电视机当中，4K与HD之间的价差仅次于。

消费者可以按1,700美元左右的价格卖一台来自著名高清电视机生产商的70英寸电视机，相比之下某种程度尺寸的4K电视机要花上4,000多美元。消费者基本上可以在今天卖一台70英寸的高清电视机，在价格更加较低的时候卖一台4K电视机，同时依然拥有优势。Production of 4K content, meanwhile, is just getting under way. A few World Cup games will be in 4K, but regular broadcasts of live sports wont be available for some time. Sony offers more than 50 movies in 4K, and the movie studios are following suit. In Japan, 4K broadcasting could begin as early as this summer. The rest of the world, however, is still at least a year or two away from 4K TV channels.与此同时，4K内容的生产才刚刚开始。几场世界杯比赛将用4K格式，但经常性的4K赛事直播在一段时间内还看到。

索尼(Sony) 有50多部电影是4K，各电影制作公司也在第一时间。在日本，4K电视节目最先有可能在今年夏季开始播映。

但世界其他地方最少还有一两年才不会有4K电视频道经常出现。Therein lies the industrys greatest challenge: getting 4K content to the TV.行业面对的仅次于挑战，是怎样把4K内容传遍电视机上。

Season 2 of Netflixs House of Cards is one of the first series available in 4K. But today, no U.S. pay-TV service or broadcaster offers 4K, either on demand or as a TV channel. Comcast Corp. and online movie service M-GO have both announced partnerships with Samsung to deliver 4K content sometime this year, but neither service is available yet to consumers.Netflix《纸牌屋》第二季将是第一批4K电视连续剧之一。但在今天，没哪家付费电视服务公司或电视台获取4K，不管是按须要获取的4K还是4K电视频道。康卡斯特(Comcast Corp.)和在线电影服务商M-GO都发布了跟三星(Samsung)的合作方案，将在今年的某个时候发售4K内容，但两家公司的服务都还无法为消费者享用。

The holdup is due to the size of 4K files. To stream a 4K video, you will need a broadband service that can provide a speed of at least 15 megabits per second, all the time.这种中断状态缘于4K文件的大小。要在线播放一部4K视频，宽带服务商必需需要持续获取最少每秒15兆的网速。Even if you subscribe to a 15 to 20 Mbps service, inconsistencies in the Internet speed from your provider as well as use of the Internet by other devices in the home may reduce your 4K viewing to a long series of pauses as your connection coughs out a few minutes of video at a time. Homes may need service of 50 Mbps or better to have an adequate 4K streaming experience.即便是采购了15Mbps到20Mbps的服务，服务商网速的不连贯以及家中其他设备对网络的用于都有可能造成间隔几分钟就折断网一次，从而使你的4K观赏体验沦落一连串的中断。

家庭网速有可能必须超过50Mbps甚至以上，才能取得差强人意的4K在线播放体验。Disc Slip碟子也敢Physical media is also not the answer. Blu-ray discs cannot handle 4K content. The player can support playout of 2160p images and video, but the discs themselves dont have the capacity to hold most 4K movies and the extras that are often included in Blu-ray. For now, studios are putting 2K versions of movies on Blu-ray discs and promoting them as mastered or filmed in 4K. Once discs are developed that can handle 4K, they may require entirely new players.实体媒介也不是答案。蓝光光碟应付没法4K内容。播放机可以反对2160p图像和视频的播出，但碟子本身的容量只想大多数4K电影以及经常被包括在蓝光光碟里面的花絮。

目前影视制作公司正在把2K版本的电影放入蓝光光碟里面，在促销的时候说道母版是4K或摄制的时候是4K。等需要处置4K内容的光碟研发出来，有可能就必须用全新的播放机才能播出了。

Finally, its true that when watching HD content on a 4K set there can be a marginally better picture. But why pay two to three times as much to get a slightly better picture quality when actual 4K content wont be available for some time?最后，在4K电视机上看高清内容的画质有可能要略好一些，这不骗。但是，在还有一段时间才能看见正宗4K内容的时候，为什么要花上两三倍的钱去取得一种略为好一点的画质呢？Only the hardiest gadget lovers should think of buying 4K now while they still cannot get the full benefit of it. Everyone else can wait.在眼下无法享用4K全部益处的时候，只有最疯狂的科技产品爱好者才应当考虑到卖一台4K电视机，其他所有人都可以等等。

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